- I-Samsung, i-Micron ne-SanDisk iyasebenza ukunyuka: i-DRAM ifika ku-+30% kanye ne-NAND phakathi kuka-+5% no-+10%.
- I-AI kanye nezikhungo zedatha ziqhuba isidingo; I-HBM ebekwe phambili yehlisa i-DRAM evamile.
- I-TrendForce ithola ukwanda kwamasonto onke (i-DRAM + 5,4%); Indawo ye-TLC +5,44%; kuze kube amasonto angu-10.
- Kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokungezwani ngo-2026 nangale kwalokho; ukuhlela ukuthenga nezinye izindlela kubalulekile.
Ukuchuma kobuhlakani bokwenziwa kushintshe isimo sehadiwe: Imemori ye-DRAM ne-NAND iqalile ukwenyuka kwentengo okuvele kubonakala kusukela esiteshini sokuthengisa ngobuningi kuya kumthengi. Lokhu akusikho ukwenyuka okuthusayo kokuphela komjikelezo, kodwa ushintsho lwemakethe lapho abakhiqizi belungisa okunikezwayo kwabo, bebeka phambili imigqa yemikhiqizo enenzuzo kakhulu, kanye namakhasimende enza ukuthenga kusenesikhathi ukuze athole ukunikezwa.
Izimpawu zivela kuzo zonke izinhlangothi: I-Samsung iqalise ukwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo , i-Micron ixwayise amakhasimende ayo ngokunyuka kwentengo okuqhubekayo, kanti i-SanDisk isivele yenze izinguquko emakethe ye-NAND. Okungeziwe kulokhu ukusunduzwa okuvela ezikhungweni zedatha, ukubekwa phambili kwememori ye-HBM kuma -accelerator e-AI , kanye nochungechunge lokunikezela olungaphansi kokucindezeleka okukhulu. Umphumela uba umongo wokungezwani phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo okubonisa ukwenyuka kwentengo okuqhubekayo ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Kwenzekani ngezintengo ze-DRAM ne-NAND?
Isinyathelo esibonakala kakhulu senziwe yi-Samsung, eye yandisa kakhulu intengo yememori yayo . Ku-DRAM yeselula, imikhiqizo ye -LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, kanye ne-LPDDR5X isibize kakhulu ngo-30%, kuyilapho i-NAND Flash ye-eMMC kanye ne-UFS ibone ukwanda okuphakathi kuka-5% no-10%. Lesi sinqumo sifika ngesikhathi lapho inkampani igcina isikhundla esiphambili cishe ngengxenye yesithathu yesabelo semakethe ku-DRAM (32,7%) kanye ne-NAND (32,9%) , futhi isheshisa intuthuko yesizukulwane esilandelayo, i-LPDDR6 , ngenhloso yokuba nemiklamo elungile maduze.
I-Samsung ayiyona yodwa. I-Micron itshele amakhasimende ayo ngokukhuphuka kwamanani kusukela ku-20% kuya ku-30% futhi iyeke nokwamukela ama-oda amasha ezinhlotsheni ezithile zamanani njengendlela yokuphatha ukutholakala. Okwamanje, i-SanDisk iqalise ukwenyuka kwamanani ngo-10% kwimemori yayo ye-NAND flash. Lezi zinqumo, ezingase zifinyelele kwabanye abadlali abanjengo-SK hynix, zidweba isithombe esicacile: lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka luyalungiswa, luqhutshwa yi-AI, izikhungo zedatha, kanye nokuhlinzekwa okungakhuli ngesivinini esifanayo.
Lesi simo asigcini nje ngokuthinta i-DRAM noma i-NAND yeselula yamadivayisi. Ngisho ne -DDR4 ibone ukwenyuka kwentengo kufika ku-50% kwezinye izingxenye, okushiya i-DDR5 isesimweni esikhangayo uma kucatshangelwa izindleko/ukusebenza kwama-PC edeskithophu. Isizathu esiyisisekelo silula: abakhiqizi babeka phambili ukukhiqizwa kwememori ye-bandwidth ephezulu (i-HBM) ngenxa yenzuzo yayo engcono kanye nesidingo esinamandla sama-accelerator e-NVIDIA ne-AMD AI, okushiya umthamo omncane we-DRAM "ejwayelekile".
Kumemori ye-NAND flash, umthelela nawo uyabonakala. Ama-chip e -SSD kanye nesitoreji seselula azizwa ingcindezi evela ezinqolobaneni eziqashwe ngokucophelela, izinkontileka ezixoxiswane ngazo ezinamanani aphezulu, kanye nesidingo esikhulayo ezikhungweni zedatha okubeka ingcindezi ohlangothini lokunikezwa. Isithombe sisonke singesemakethe ethola amandla futhi elungiselela isikhathi eside samanani azinzile.
Izimpawu Zemakethe: Idatha Yakamuva kanye Nokusebenza Ngobuchwepheshe
Idatha evela ezinkampanini zokubonisana ezikhethekile iqinisa le ndaba. I-TrendForce ikhombisile ukuthi intengo emaphakathi yamamojula e-DRAM athandwa kakhulu ikhuphuke ngo-5,4% ngesonto eledlule ehlaziyiwe, yafinyelela cishe ku- $6.359 . Nakuba lokhu kungase kubonakale njengenani elibalulekile, umyalezo oyisisekelo awucacile: ukwenyuka kwentengo kuyaqhubeka futhi akuyona into eyenzeka yodwa.
Ngokuphathelene nobuchwepheshe, i-DDR4 ikhula ngokushesha kakhulu , kanti ukwanda kwamasonto onke kudlula u-11% kwezinye izimo. Ngisho ne -DDR3 , naphezu kobudala bayo, ibonise intuthuko engaba ngu-10% . I-DDR5 igcina ukukhula okuphakathi, kodwa ngendlela efanayo nabahlinzeki. Lokhu kwehluka kuhambisana nomqondo wokuthi abakhiqizi banciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwezizukulwane ezindala ukuze baqondise kabusha izinsiza emigqeni yomkhiqizo enesilinganiso esiphezulu noma efunwa kakhulu.
Emakethe yememori ye-NAND flash, isithombe sixubile. I-MLC ne-SLC azikafiki emakethe ye-spot, kuyilapho i-TLC ikhuphuke ngo-5,44% emakethe efanayo. Ukulindela amanani aphezulu ezinkontileka esikhathini esifushane kuchaza ukuziphatha okuqaphile kwabathengisi, abakhetha ukungathengisi amasheya ngamanani abawabheka njengaphansi lapho kulindeleke ukulungiswa okuphezulu.
Kanye nezinombolo, kuvela esinye isibonakaliso esibalulekile: izikhathi zokulethwa ziyanda . Imibiko ikhombisa ukuthi izikhathi zokuhola zifinyelela emavikini ayi-10 emikhiqizweni ethile, okwengeza ubunzima obengeziwe kubahlanganisi, izikhungo zedatha, kanye nabasabalalisi. Endaweni yokufunwa okukhulu kanye nokunikezwa okuncane, ukulindela izitayela cishe kubalulekile ukuze ugweme ukushiywa ngemuva.
I-AI nezikhungo zedatha: injini enkulu yokukhuphuka
Ubuhlakani bokwenziwa abugcini nje ngokuthatha ukunaka kwabezindaba; kodwa futhi bushintsha izidingo zememori . Ngesikhathi sesigaba esinzima kakhulu sokuqeqesha amamodeli amakhulu, okwakubaluleke kakhulu kwakuyi -GPU kanye ne-HBM . Manje, njengoba ukugxila kushintshela kancane kancane ekuqondeni ngezinga , inani ledatha liyakhula, futhi kanye nalo, isidingo sokugcina amafu amakhulu, okusheshayo . Lolu shintsho lukhulisa ingcindezi ku-DRAM kanye ne-NAND yenhloso ejwayelekile.
Empeleni, izikhungo zedatha zandisa izakhiwo zazo zokugcina ngezendlalelo ezifana nesitoreji esiseduze , esiphakathi kokufinyelela okushisayo kanye nesitoreji sokugcina esibandayo. Sisetshenziselwa izinguqulo zamamodeli amadala , imibuzo engavamile kanye namasethi wedatha, futhi sifanelana kahle uma umgomo uwukulawula izindleko ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa ukutholakala . Njengoba izinhlelo zokwandisa ziqhubeka, lesi sendlalelo siyanda, futhi kanye naso, isidingo se-NAND yezinga lebhizinisi.
Okwenezela kulokhu kucindezela iqiniso lokuthi abakhiqizi babeka i-HBM phambili ngenxa yenzuzo yayo kanye nesidingo sama-accelerator e-AI, okushiya ama-wafer ambalwa e-DRAM ejwayelekile futhi kudala izithiyo. Lokhu kubeka phambili kunengqondo ngokwezimali, kodwa kwandisa izindleko zezinye izinhlobo zememori futhi kushintsha amamephu omgwaqo womkhiqizo kulo lonke imboni.
Lo mphumela uthinta abanye abadlali besitoreji. I-Western Digital isivele iqinisekisile ukwenyuka kwentengo yama-HDD , ngokusetshenziswa kancane kancane futhi akukho sibalo esinqunyiwe, kuyilapho ukwenyuka kwentengo ye-SSD kulindeleke ukuthi kube phakathi kuka-10% no-30% , kuye ngomkhiqizi. Ukuqagela okuqaphele kakhulu kusikisela ukuthi singafinyelela esicongweni sentengo ngo-2026 uma lo mkhuba wamanje uqhubeka futhi ukushoda kokunikezwa kuqinisekiswa ekuqaleni kwalowo nyaka.
Futhi kunezixwayiso eziqinile nakakhulu ezivela kubahlinzeki babalawuli: UPua Khein-Seng (Phison) uphikisana ngokuthi imboni ye-NAND Flash ingabhekana nokuntuleka kwesikhathi eside eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo ngenxa yalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “i-supercycle yememori.” Ngemva kweminyaka eminingi yamanani aphansi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okuncane , kanye nemali eningi edluliselwe ku-HBM ngenxa yemingcele yayo ekhangayo, amandla e-NAND awekho njengoba nje isidingo sikhula futhi.
I-DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR, ne-HBM: Ubani Ophumelelayo Futhi Olahlekelwayo?
Uma sibheka izingxenye, abawinile nabalahlekile bacacile. I-DDR4 ingaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu ngenxa yokuncipha kokukhiqizwa kanye nesidingo esisaqinile ezinhlelweni eziningi ezifakiwe. Lokhu kwehlisa intengo yayo futhi kuyenza ingakhangi kangako uma kuqhathaniswa ne- DDR5 , okuthi, yize nayo ikhuphuka, yenza kanjalo kancane kancane futhi inikeza isilinganiso esingcono sokusebenza nezindleko kumapulatifomu amasha.
Emkhakheni weselula, isithombe sifana: i-LPDDR4X, i-LPDDR5, kanye ne-LPDDR5X ziqoqa uhlu lwama-oda olukhulayo, futhi njengoba intengo ye-Samsung ikhuphuka ngo-30%, amadivayisi anjenge-smartphones, amaphilisi, ama-consoles aphathekayo, kanye nama-laptops ane-RAM ehlanganisiwe angase abize kakhulu. Ngenxa yokuthi ihlanganisiwe, inkumbulo ikhawulela noma yikuphi ukulungiswa kokucushwa kokugcina, okuphoqa abakhiqizi bemishini ukuthi bacabange kabusha nge-Bill of Materials (BOMs) yabo kanye nemivuzo yenzuzo.
Ezweni lama-accelerator e-AI kanye namaseva asebenza kahle kakhulu, i-HBM ithatha indawo ephambili ngenxa yobubanzi bayo obukhulu, kodwa ukukhuphuka kwayo kusho ukuthi amandla amancane atholakalayo e-DRAM evamile. Lokhu kudluliselwa kabusha kungemuva kwesikhathi eside sokulethwa kanye nokubuyekezwa kwamanani okuthinta ama-RDIMM, ama-LRDIMM, kanye namamojula athile eseva.
Ngokuphathelene nokugcinwa kwezimpahla, i-NAND TLC ibeka ithoni emakethe yabathengi kanye nengxenye enkulu yemakethe yezinkampani, yingakho ukunyuka kwayo emakethe ethengiswayo ( +5,44% ) kubhekwe eduze. I-MLC ne-SLC zibonisa ukuguquguquka okuncane, kodwa imakethe yezinkontileka isivele ilindele amanani akhuphukayo esikhathini esifushane, okunciphisa ukuthengiswa okunamathuba nokukhuthaza ukuphathwa kwempahla.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuchwepheshe obungashintshi njenge-MRAM ne-ReRAM buvela ngenxa yezimo zesimo eziqhubekayo kanye nokuqaliswa okusheshayo emaphethelweni. Ngeke buthathe indawo ye-NAND esikhathini esifushane, kodwa bandisa ububanzi bamathuba futhi banikeze inhlanganisela entsha ezinhlelweni lapho i-watt ngayinye kanye ne-millisecond ngayinye kubalwa khona.
Imephu yomgwaqo, ukugxilwa kwendawo kanye nezingozi ze-supply chain
Umhlahlandlela wobuchwepheshe ubhalwa kabusha kugxilwe ekusebenzeni kahle kanye nomkhawulokudonsa. I-Samsung isheshisa i-LPDDR6 ukuze ihlangabezane nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo, kuyilapho i-Micron ne-SK hynix zilungisa umthamo kanye namanani. Nakuba lokhu kusungula izinto ezintsha kuthembisa ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kanye nezindleko eziphansi nge-bit ngayinye , akuxazululi ngokushesha inkinga yanamuhla.
Ukuhlushwa kwezindawo kudlala indima enkulu. INingizimu Korea ibusa i-DRAM , iTaiwan ihamba phambili ekupakisheni okuthuthukisiwe , kanti iJapane ihlinzeka ngezinto ezikhethekile kanye nenkumbulo. Lesi simo siphinde sibe nezingozi: ukungezwani kwezepolitiki , ukulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, izithiyo emishinini ebalulekile njenge- lithography ye-EUV , kanye nokuntuleka kwezinto ezingaba khona (amagesi, ama-photoresistor), konke okunganciphisa ukulethwa futhi kwandise izindleko.
Okwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu, inkumbulo ibilokhu iyimakethe ejikelezayo kakhulu ngokomlando ; umehluko manje ukuthi i-AI isibe yisidingo sesakhiwo . Lokhu kuhlanganiswa kwenza izimo ezinokwenzeka lapho ukunikezwa kungenakukwazi ukufinyelela khona esikhathini esifushane, ikakhulukazi uma utshalomali olusha lugxile kuma -node aphezulu (HBM) kanye nemikhiqizo ngezindleko zezizukulwane ezedlule.
Konke lokhu kuhambisana nokuxilongwa kwe- " supercycle " yememori : iminyaka yokutshalwa kwezimali okuvinjelwe, izinguquko ekuhlanganisweni kokukhiqiza, kanye nokwanda okuqhubekayo kwe-AI okukhuphula amanani kanye nezikhathi zokuhola. Umphumela ubikezelwa: ukuqaphela okukhulu lapho unikeza amandla, izinkontileka eziqinile , kanye nendawo encane yezipesheli ezinolaka esiteshini.
Umthelela kubakhiqizi bemishini, izihlanganisi kanye nabathengi
Kuma-OEM kanye nabahlanganisi, izindleko zememori ziba yi-P&L variable ebalulekile . Kuma-PC nasezindaweni zokusebenza, iseluleko esiwusizo sicacile: beka phambili amapulatifomu e -DDR5 uma kungenzeka futhi ubuyekeze ukucushwa kwamandla/kwesiteshi ukuze ukhuphule ukusebenza ngaphandle kokunyusa izindleko. Kumadivayisi eselula nalula kakhulu ane-RAM ehlanganisiwe, ukuphathwa kwe-BOM kanye nokukhishwa kwe-batch kungenza umehluko omkhulu.
Kumaseva, ukushintshela kumamodeli e-AI anemingcele eminingi kanye nokucabanga okungu-24/7 kudinga ukuqinisa ukuhlela kwe-DRAM (RDIMM/LRDIMM) nokuqinisekisa izinkontileka ze -SSD zebhizinisi ngesikhathi esanele se-buffer. Isitoreji esiseduze siyakhula njenge-buffer yezindleko, futhi ukuhlanganiswa kwe-NVMe esebenza kahle kanye nezendlalelo zesitoreji ezibiza kancane kuzoba yimbangela eyinhloko yokusebenza kahle.
Kumsebenzisi wokugcina, umlayezo awudingi ubuchwepheshe obuningi, kodwa ucacile: uma udinga ukuthuthukisa i-RAM yakho noma ukuthenga i-SSD, ukuthenga kusenesikhathi kungavimbela izimanga ezingathandeki . Umjikelezo wesizini owawuvame ukwehlisa amanani enkumbulo ngasekupheleni konyaka uphansi; empeleni, abanye babikezela ukwenyuka kwentengo esikhundleni sokwehla phakathi naleso sikhathi ngenxa yesidingo se-AI kanye nokulungiswa kokuhlinzekwa.
Kuhlelo lokusabalalisa, izikhathi zokulethwa ezinde zidinga ukubikezela okunembe kakhudlwana kanye nezilinganiso zokuthenga ezilinganiselwe. Labo abahluleka ukuhlela kusengaphambili bangaphelelwa yisitoko ngesikhathi sokufunwa okuphezulu, noma baphoqeleke ukuthenga ngamanani aphezulu ukuze bagweme ukudumaza amakhasimende abo.
Ukwakhiwa komkhiqizo: inkumbulo kuqala, i-CPU/GPU yesibili
Umphumela oqondile walesi siphepho esiphelele ukuthi ukwakheka kwehadiwe manje kuchazwa yinkumbulo . Kuma-workflows akudala, ukhethe i-CPU noma i-GPU bese uthola inkumbulo. Namuhla, njengoba imisebenzi ye-AI ibusa imephu yomgwaqo, lokho kulandelana kuyaguqulwa: ukhetha inkumbulo, i-bandwidth, kanye ne-topology , futhi lokho kulawula lonke uhlelo.
Uma ukhetha i-GDDR6/GDDR7 ukuze uthole ukushesha kokuqonda, kuzodingeka ucabangele ama-power rails azinikele , ama-trace ayinkimbinkimbi, kanye nokucatshangelwa kokushisa kanye ne-EMI okudinga kakhulu. Ukukhetha i-LPDDR5/LPDDR5X onqenqemeni kuzothuthukisa ukusebenza kahle, kodwa kukhawulela i-bandwidth kanye nosayizi wemodeli ongayisebenzisa. I-HBM isebenza kahle kakhulu, kodwa idinga ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kanye negumbi lomhwamuko noma ngisho nezixazululo zokupholisa uketshezi , okwandisa izindleko zesistimu iyonke.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhambisana akuyona nje indaba yezingxenye zikagesi. I-bandwidth, ukubambezeleka, kanye nokuhambisana kumele kuhambisane nephrofayili yomsebenzi wangempela. Ukukhetha imemori engahleliwe kahle kungasebenzisa kabi ama-accelerator abizayo , kukhulise ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, noma kukhawulele ukuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo. Yingakho amaqembu amaningi echaza izinyathelo zememori kanye nezixhumi ngaphambi kokuba kuqedwe amamodeli e-firmware kanye nesofthiwe, futhi kuhambisana nalokhu nokulingisa kokuqala kokufinyelela nokusebenza.
Ukubambisana phakathi kwehadiwe, isofthiwe, kanye nochungechunge lokuhlinzeka akuseyona nje "into enhle ukuba nayo." Yilokho okuvumela ukuhlonza ezinye izindlela zezingxenye , kunciphisa ukuphelelwa yisikhathi, futhi kuvumela ukuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo emakethe eguquguqukayo. Amathuluzi akhuthaza ubuhlakani bezingxenye kanye nomsebenzi wesikhathi sangempela afinyeza izikhathi zomjikelezo futhi anciphise ukusebenza kabusha lapho amamephu emigwaqo yenkumbulo eshintsha.
Amanani ukuya ku-2026 nangaphezulu: yini ongayilindela
Izimpawu ziyavumelana: ukunyuka kwentengo kancane kancane nokuqhubekayo kwememori ye-DRAM kanye ne-NAND flash kuyo yonke ingxenye elandelayo yomjikelezo. Ezinye izilinganiso zibeka amanani aphezulu cishe ngo-2026 , kanye nezingcindezi zokuphakelwa ezilindeleke ekuqaleni konyaka uma ukwanda kwamandla kungasheshiswa. Kuma-SSD, ukunyuka kwentengo okungu- 10% kuya ku-30% kulindeleke , kuye ngomkhiqizi kanye nobubanzi bomkhiqizo. Ukwenyuka kwentengo okuqhubekayo kwama-HDD kungasunduza imboni ekwamukelweni okukhulu kwama-SSD ezikhungweni zedatha.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kunezibikezelo zokuthi izindleko zama-SSD eseva zizohlangana nama-HDD zingakapheli iminyaka emihlanu kuya kweyisishiyagalombili, okuzosheshisa ukwehla kwama-hard drive omshini ezindaweni zebhizinisi. Uma lokhu kuguquka kwenzeka, isidingo se-NAND sizogcina ukukhula okuqhubekayo kuze kube yiminyaka eyishumi ezayo , kuqiniswe isimo samanani azinzile.
Esikhathini esifushane, abakhiqizi abanjengoMicron baveze ukuthi bazokhulisa amanani kancane kancane unyaka wonke njengoba isidingo sama -SSD namamojula e-RAM ezikhungo zedatha sikhuphuka . Emikhiqizweni yabasebenzisi bokugcina, lokhu kungaholela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo cishe ngo-10% ekupheleni konyaka, ngokushintshashintsha ngokwesigaba nesifunda. Lokhu akubonakali sengathi kukhuphuka ngokuzumayo, kodwa kunalokho kuwukujwayelekile kwamanani ngemva kokwehla okukhulu kwemijikelezo yangaphambilini.
Okwamanje, i-Samsung iyaqhubeka nokucindezela isikhundla sayo sobuholi, iqhubekisela phambili imephu yayo ye -LPDDR6 , futhi ilungisa ingxube yayo yokukhiqiza ibe yimigqa esekela izinzuzo. Ingxenye enkulu yendlela yentengo yenkumbulo emakoteni azayo izoncika kulokhu kulinganisela okubucayi phakathi kokunikezwa, isidingo, kanye nezinto eziza kuqala ekutshalweni kwezimali.
Kulabo abathenga, abahlanganisa, noma abaklama ngokuqonda okuqinile kohlelo, isu elingcono kakhulu manje ukuba nesibindi : ukubuyekeza isitokwe esibalulekile, ukusheshisa ukuthengwa okubalulekile, ukuqinisekisa imithombo yesibili, nokuhlela izikhathi ezingokoqobo. Isimo asibonakali sizoba ngcono esikhathini esifushane, futhi labo abathuthukayo bazoba nethuba lokuncintisana lapho isimo siba sibi kakhulu.
